DRASTIC PACKAGING SOURCE REDUCTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL REBOUND EFFECT: CONCEPTUALIZATION, MODELING, SIMULATION AND CRITICS


ABSTRACT

This study investigates if drastic source reductions achieved through highly efficient packaging solutions could induce environmental rebound effects. Such a phenomenon has been explored in several fields, but not packaging. Following a brief literature review, the investigated effect was first theorized, adapting a well-established product-packaging environmental model. Then, simulations were carried out feeding this new model with results from a ketchup and a tuna system life cycle analyses. Results showed that a relevant rebound effect is probably common, despite of important packaging source reduction and even with relatively modest sales increase. The main explanation lies in the overreach of the packaging onto its product larger footprint. In some conditions, like those involving animal food products with high waste rates in unstable economies, efficiency gains might even backfire, configuring Jevons paradoxes. Such effects should thus not be dismissed in certain packaging environmental assessments. They must not be used, however, as an argument to limit packaging eco-efficiency developments, even if practically impossible to counterbalance. At the same time they constitute a warning about possible drawbacks of packaging source reduction, they stand as an additional argument on the environmental importance of packaging effectiveness, i.e., the guarantee of proper product distribution and protection along the supply chains.

Key words: packaging, flexible packaging, rebound effect, environmental rebound effect, packaging environmental assessment, sustainable packaging.







1 INTRODUCTION


Packaging is a significant part of Municipal Solid Waste - MSW. In the European Union, the 2012 average for all 28 countries was 32% in weight (Bartl, 2015, p. 1), with some regions exceeding 40% (Rouw & Worrel, 2011, p. 483). In other industrialized countries such as the USA, Australia or Canada, packaging waste similarly represents about a third of MSW (Tencati, Pogutz, Moda, Brambilla, & Cacia, 2016, p. 35). In the developing world, littering and uncontrolled dumping prevent accurate data collection. Although estimates are generally lower than in more developed countries, they tend to increase over time, as waste generation evolves with consumption and production patterns (Chaerul, Fahruroji, & Fujiwara, 2014, p. 509). At the turn of the 21st century, packaging waste reached 15% of MSW in China (Xie, Qiao, Sun, & Zhang, 2012, p. 627) and probably as much as 30% in Brazil (Brazil, 2015, p. 77). In absolute numbers, global packaging waste reached 420 million tons in 2011, with per capita generations of about 12 kg a year in China and 160 kg in the European Union (Qingbin, Jinhui, & Xianlai, 2015, p. 203). If only by its sheer size, packaging waste stands as an important environmental issue. Managing it properly implies prioritizing prevention strategies, notwithstanding limitations in the traditional waste hierarchy concept (Van Ewijk & Stegemann, 2016, p. 123). As it becomes clear that policies and efforts focused on recycling and recovery are insufficient, prevention measures are gaining increasing attention (Tencati, Pogutz, Moda, Brambilla, & Cacia, 2016, p. 36).
Waste prevention simply means reducing waste by not producing it. It is often used interchangeably for source reduction (Qingbin, Jinhui, & Xianlai, 2015, p. 208). In a life cycle perspective, however, source reduction is a preferable expression for it encompasses not only waste generation but also resources depletion aspects (Genovese, Acquaye, Figueroa, & Koh, 2017, p. 345). As studies have repeatedly shown, upstream impact reductions actually often justify waste prevention well beyond its direct but rather limited benefits (e.g., Cleary, 2014, p. 1607; Gentil, Gallo, & Christensen, 2011, p. 2371; Nessi, Rigamonti, & Grosso, 2015, p. 845). Moreover, waste prevention can also be misunderstood for complete rather than partial waste elimination.
Proper packaging source reduction initiatives, either as technical guidance or legal requirements (Nessi, Rigamonti, & Grosso, 2015, p. 833), must guarantee new packaging solutions continue to fulfill their protection, communication and delivery functions with regard to their product. Failing to do so will likely create self-defeating burden shifts, as repeatedly shown for food products (Grönman, et al., 2013, p. 187; Verghese, Lewis, Lockrey, & Williams, 2015, p. 603). To sustain its environmental purpose, packaging needs to enable product distribution and meet technical requirements such as physical resistance or chemical barrier, aiming at no waste along the supply chain, up until the consumption phase (Büsser & Jungbluth, 2009, p. 90; Williams & Wikström, 2011, p. 48). And one of the best solutions to secure these important functions while at the same time promoting source reduction is to combine several polymers in coextruded or laminated films (Barlow & Morgan, 2013, p. 76; Poovarodom, Ponnak, & Manatphrom, 2015, p. 519; van Sluisveld & Worrell, 2013, p. 135), i.e., flexible packaging.
Since its appearance in the industrial boom of the 1950s, and especially over the past ten years, flexible packaging has stood as one of the fastest growing packaging category (Poovarodom, Ponnak, & Manatphrom, Impact of production and conversion processes on the carbon footprint of flexible plastic film, 2015, p. 519). In the United States, for example, it has shown a regular market increase of around 3% a year since 1992, with the only exception of the 2001 and 2009 crises (FPA, 2014, p. 9). Today, about half of all retail units worldwide are purchased – directly or not – through a flexible packaging, with food products leading the way (Poovarodom, Ponnak, & Manatphrom, Impact of production and conversion processes on the carbon footprint of flexible plastic film, 2015, p. 519). The main drivers for such a success, however, are not environmental. They are primarily but techno-economical. Synthetic polymers production not only increased more than 100 times since the 1970s (Marcinkowski & Kowalski, 2012, p. 10), but also specialized. From resin manufacturers to converters, materials to machines, processes to products, the industry continuously improves and innovates. As a result, plastic packaging are versatile and now often preferred over other alternatives (Chaerul, Fahruroji, & Fujiwara, 2014, p. 509). Over time, further migration from heavier long-established packaging systems, such as metal cans, glass jars or rigid bottles to new improved flexible packaging is expected (Humbert, Rossi, Margni, Jolliet, & Loerincik, 2009, p. 105).
Economic factors are crucial. Flexible packaging is usually not only much lighter than functional equivalents, but also more affordable (Makanjuola & Enujiugha, 2015). Cost reduction enabled by source reduction is usually envisioned as plain eco-efficiency, a natural win-win environmental-economic evolution (Huppes & Ishikawa, 2005, p. 43; Ravi, 2015, p. 17). Nonetheless, if more efficient packaging solutions are less expensive, this can also increase consumer demand, and, consequently, globally lessen the original environmental benefits. This perverse relationship of cause and effect is referred to as the rebound effect. Identified since the beginning of the industrial revolution, this phenomenon has been widely studied in the energy field and beyond, but Dace et al. found no previous account in waste management research: "reviewing the literature on waste management systems, we found no description of the rebound effect phenomena. We consider its identification as a key finding” (Dace, Bazbauers, Berzina, & Davidsen, 2014, p. 181). However, the effect they identified is not related to a lighter and more affordable packaging solution, but to a reinforcing loop “where the supply of cheaper recycled materials in the market […] results in increased total use of packaging materials” (p. 182). Just as Dace et al., we found no mention of a rebound effect applied to packaging. As van Sluisveld & Worrell´s points out source reduction averaging as much as 85%, though, one might reasonably suspect a rebound effect (2013, p. 137). Considering the scale of the issue and the significance of the associated environmental aspects, such a question also obviously carries some practical relevance.
The main objective of this study is to establish a theoretical framework for the assessment of packaging environmental rebound effects associated to drastic source reduction initiatives. It is divided into three parts. The origins of the rebound effect and its academic development into different fields are first briefly presented. After analyzing the specifics of its application to packaging, a basic mathematical model is then proposed and two cases simulated, all based on previous research data. Finally, the intensity of the phenomenon, as well as its main theoretical outcomes, are discussed.




2 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND


2.1 Origins of the rebound effect

The Jevons paradox has been traditionally used to qualify situations in an energy context where an improvement in efficiency causes an absolute increase in consumption. From a broader environmental perspective, this means that a relative reduction of the impacts associated with a particular product or service can cause an absolute increase in these same impacts (York, 2006, p. 143). The origin of this concept is attributed to William Stanley Jevons, a British 19th-century economist. He showed that technological advances in steam engines increased coal consumption (Alcott, 2005). Yet, the Jevons paradox is just the extreme embodiment of a much more common occurrence, the rebound effect. This more general phenomenon can be defined as an increase in total consumption caused by systemic socioeconomic responses to efficiency gains (Vivanco & van der Voet, 2014, p. 1934). In a Jevons paradox, the rebound effect exceeds the initial benefit; the phenomenon needs not be that severe to merit consideration.
In its simplest analysis, the rebound effect usually receives two explanations, both grounded in economics. The first and most common is a simple application of the supply and demand law: a reduction in the price of a good or service causes a quantitative increase in its demand, which can counteract or even exceed the initial qualitative gain (York, 2006, p. 143). The second explanation comes from a macroeconomic standpoint: specific but significant efficiency gains often generate overall economic gains and, thus, a general increase in demand for goods and services (Alcott, 2005, p. 10; Amado & Sauer, 2012, p. 2; Saunders, 1992, p. 131; York, 2006, p. 143).


2.2 Application in the energy arena and beyond 

Since Jevons, economists and environmentalists copiously revisited the rebound effect. Expanded from its original industrial coal to several other energy resources and contexts, the concept truly established itself as an economic theory in the 1980s (Vivanco & van der Voet, 2014, p. 1933). The transportation field is particularly rich in examples. York wrote: “an examination of recent trends in the fuel consumption of motor vehicles suggests a paradoxical situation where improvements in efficiency are associated with increases in fuel consumption” (York, 2006, p. 144). Studying trucks in Portugal, Matos & Silva concluded that increasing the fleet energy efficiency by 1% reduced energy consumption by just 0,76%, i.e., a 24% rebound effect (Matos & Silva, 2011, p. 2841). In a European study spanning from 1990 to 2005, researchers found that, even if they pollute relatively less than their gasoline counterparts, car diesel engines increased total CO and NO emissions through a rebound effect induced by its lower price (Vivanco, Kemp, Voet, & Heijungs, 2014, p. 380).
Even if most studies focused on energy issues, other fields of application have been investigated for at least twenty years. The environmental rebound effect, which first usage is credited to Goedkoop et al. (1999), is an application of the original concept to a wider range of environmental aspects (Vivanco & van der Voet, 2014, p. 1939). Climate change is an obvious candidate because of its close association with energy footprints: “although there is no scientific consensus about its magnitude, there is a consensus about its existence and in acknowledging the harmful effects it has on achieving energy or climate targets" (Freire-González & Puig-Ventosa, 2015, p. 69). Some other applications are less obvious. For example, using 2002 data, York showed that the advent of the digital age did not reduce office paper consumption: “there may be a direct causal link between the rise of electronic mediums of data storage and paper consumption” (York, 2006, p. 145). Starting its argument from the same broken ‘paperless office’ promise from the 1980s, Abukhader broadens the perspective stating that the “rebound effects represent one of the primary issues in determining that eco-efficiency is not the sole strategy […] for forecasting and reducing the environmental damages due to E-commerce” (Abukhader, 2008, p. 802). Another curious paradox establishes that an increase in road capacity can cause an indirect increase in the number of cars and, therefore, in traffic (Mogridge, 1990). Following a similar rationale, Grabs reassessed the benefits of a vegetarianism diet by estimating “the indirect environmental rebound effect related to the re-spending of expenditure saved during the initial behavioral shift” (Grabs, 2015, p. 270). Even lamps that are more efficient can backfire, provoking an indirect increase in light pollution: “the artificial lightscape will change considerably over coming decades with the drive for more cost-effective […] solutions and growth in the artificially lit area” (Gaston, Davies, Bennie, & Hopkins, 2012, p. 1256). However, rebounds do not necessarily occur in all situations. For example, studying the modernization of Spanish irrigation systems, Dumont et al. found that "it can be conceptually misleading when applied to water, since it reinforces a myth about saving considerations and water efficiency, and can be too restrictive "(2013, p. 64). To our knowledge, the rebound effect has not yet been investigated for packaging.




3 METHOD


Whetten makes a distinction between two main types of theoretical contributions: using a proven theory to guide a new academic work or, at the contrary, using an academic work to formulate a new theory (Whetten, 2009, p. 218). This work consists of the first type as it tests a well-established theory in a new context. In doing so, however, it also proposes a new concept by which the environmental benefits of very light packaging might be at least partially overset by its own efficiency. As the first paper to investigate such a topic, it cannot escape some explorative quality (Yin, 1994). As such, it follows a mixed method approach, broadly consisting of a simple quantitative analysis followed by a short qualitative discussion (Creswell, 2003, p. 208).
The quantitative part can be described as a hypothesis-testing research based on existing case studies (Eisenhardt, 1989, p. 532). To quantify a potential rebound effect when migrating to a much lighter packaging solution, three steps were followed. Reflections guided by a brief literature review and some quantitative references first allowed determining the main parameters of interest, making it clear that the product environmental impacts could not be left out of the equation. Then, a basic mathematical model was constructed, adapting an existing model for environmental packaging assessments (Wikström & Williams, Potential environmental gains from reducing food losses through development of new packaging: a life-cycle model, 2010). Finally, this new model was tested by simulating migration scenarios. Data from two previous life cycle assessments (LCA) on ketchup (Andersson, Ohlsson, & Olsson, 1998) and tuna (Poovarodom, Ponnak, & Manatphrom, Comparative Carbon Footprint of Packaging Systems for Tuna Products, 2012) were used. Although simulations were performed on the new overarching model and not on the LCA models themselves, this technical approach does characterize a type of sensitivity analysis, “a systematic procedure for estimating the effects on the outcome of a study of the chosen methods and data” (Björklund, 2002), with the rebound effect itself being the tested parameter. Nonetheless, one might prefer naming it ‘consequential modeling’ (Vivanco & van der Voet, 2014, p. 1945). It is worth noting that similar model-based approaches fed with previous LCA results have already been used in previous studies aimed at assessing product-packaging system environmental impacts (Barlow & Morgan, 2013, p. 77; Williams & Wikström, 2011, p. 44).
Results showed that, due to the indirect influence of packaging on the much larger environmental footprint of its product, even source reduction projects causing relatively small sales increases could have relevant rebound effects. So, adapting the accumulated knowledge of past rebound effect research to a specific packaging context, three points were discussed: its intensity, its challenges on eco-efficiency, and proposed offset mechanisms.




4 MODEL


4.1 Conceptualization


Flexible packaging replacing steel cans, glass jars or blown plastic bottles, bring very significant source reduction. Analyzing 131 cases in the Netherlands between 2005 and 2010, van Sluisvel and Worrell concluded "the flexible packaging (such as sachets) offered the greatest potential for source reduction (85 ± 11%)" among the 15 solutions they mapped (van Sluisveld & Worrell, 2013, p. 137). Practical examples are common. A leading Brazilian cosmetics company wrote in its 2011 sustainability reports that "the new sachets for body moisturizers […] reduced the use of plastic by 83% and waste generation by 97%" (Natura, 2011, p. 34). The same year, “Coca Cola reported savings of US$ 180 million from reducing its packaging” (Qingbin, Jinhui, & Xianlai, 2015, p. 204). Even if this large overall reduction did not involve much migration to lighter packaging, it proves the potential is great. New packaging solutions make previous ones look overpackaged, constantly raising critics against what appear to be “vast quantities of products that are over dressed for no other reasons than to please the eye […], excessive packaging that necessitates more materials, more resources to manufacture, so entailing more costs” (Qingbin, Jinhui, & Xianlai, 2015, p. 203). As a more recent example, a large fast-moving consumer goods company declared it launched a mayonnaise "sachet of 550 grams with plastic consumption up to 70% lower compared to the same product in PET plastic pots" (Unilever, 2014, p. 29) and a new line of refill for liquid soap representing "70% less plastic than regular packaging" (Unilever, 2015, p. 19).
Besides reducing costs, ultralight packaging solutions like sachets or stand up pouches appear as new marketing tools that increase sales with added benefits such as higher convenience and visual appeal (Poovarodom, Ponnak, & Manatphrom, Impact of production and conversion processes on the carbon footprint of flexible plastic film, 2015, p. 250). One well-known business objective with refills, for instance, is greater customer loyalty. The environmental impact reduction brought about by flexible packaging, thus, could be partially counterbalanced by sales increase. Such a possibility has already been identified in a broad sense: “although LCAs can be used to estimate the potential net environmental gains from package substitutions, they can be misleading if one’s interpretation and extrapolation of the results lacks an appropriate context” (Cleary, 2013, p. 150). To avoid such a pitfall, Cleary undertakes packaging LCAs at a municipal scale, thus aggregating specific consumer changes. However, he does not specifically mentions a packaging rebound effect.
The amount of information necessary to prove a rebound effect generally exceeds available data. If evidencing a correlation is often possible, proving a cause and effect relationship is much more complex and authors remain prudent (Saunders, 1992, p 131; Vivanco et al, 2014, p 380; York, 2006, p. 145). Strictly speaking, it would require a comparison between what happened and what would have happened. In a dynamic market, such virtual comparison is practically impossible. For this reason, rebound effects are generally established empirically (Berkhout, Muskens, & Velthuijsen, 2000; Matos & Silva, 2011). Packaging is no exception. The following two food samples must be apprehended from this perspective.
The international Capri Sun brand probably best represents the revolution that sachets brought to the juice concentrate market targeted at children. If all pouches annually discarded in the USA were lined up end to end, they would go around the Earth nearly five times (MacKerron, 2015, p. 32). The sachet low cost and convenience undoubtedly created a higher demand for these drinks than when previously sold in glass or rigid plastic bottles. Although it is still technically challenging, pureed baby food might follow the same path in a near future. A European cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment compared traditional baby food Nestlé glass jars with their new plastic alternative (Humbert, Rossi, Margni, Jolliet, & Loerincik, 2009). Greenhouse gases reduction was estimated at 30% and primary energy consumption between 14 and 27%. The authors concludes that, “as food distribution plays an important role in the overall life cycle burdens […], it is important to avoid additional transportation of the packaged food in order to maintain or even improve the advantage of the plastic pot system” (p 96). The concern is that the operational gains coming from lighter and less fragile packaging may cause an increase in trade, and thus, some kind of packaging rebound effect. Assessing a migration from a glass jar to a high-barrier plastic rigid packaging, this examples shows that the rebound effect may apply not only to flexible packaging, but also in other significantly source reduction situations.
If a particular packaging increases consumption, demand will grow not only for this packaging, but also for the packaged product; and it has been repeatedly shown that the environmental impacts related to the product are generally much higher. This is especially true for animal products, but not only. Beef, bread, butter, cheese, coffee, ketchup, laundry detergents, manual dishwashing and milk are good examples (Büsser & Jungbluth, 2009; Golsteijn, et al., 2015; Meneses, Pasqualino, & Castells, 2012; Williams & Wikström, 2011).
The argument goes for any packaged product, but it is probably easier to demonstrate and more convincing for food. The vast majority of primary packaging are food packaging. According to a survey by the World Packaging Association, more than half of primary packaging are for food and almost a fifth for beverage (World Packaging Organisation, 2008, p. 38). Moreover, food environmental profiles are usually more available and reliable than for items such as pharmaceuticals, home or personal care products. Food typically carry larger footprints that its packaging. In “a typical food supply chain, 50% of the energy is used in food production, 10% in commercial transport to shops and retailing, 10% for packaging and 30% by consumers transport to shops, storing and cooking food” (Barlow & Morgan, 2013, p. 75). If carbon and energy footprints usually follow a similar ratio pattern in the 1 to 10 range, water footprint data are still scarce, but a value as low as 1% has been estimated for tomato sauce in a glass jar (Manzardo, et al., 2016, p. 4662).
Thus, a rather small increase in sales triggered by more efficient food packaging can have a significant environmental impact via the packaged product. Several authors already stressed the importance of food products in packaging environmental assessments. For Grönman et al., for example, food loss prevention should be the primary criteria in sustainable food packaging design (Grönman, et al., 2013). A recent literature review conducted by Lindh et al. confirmed the protective function of packaging as its most important environmental contribution (Lindh, Olsson, & Williams, 2015). However, this food-packaging relationship has not been analyzed yet from a rebound effect standpoint, calling for some quantitative investigation.


4.2 Modelling 

To analyze the investigated rebound effect, we adapted an environmental impact model initially developed by Wikström and Williams for any product-packaging system (Wikström & Williams, Potential environmental gains from reducing food losses through development of new packaging: a life-cycle model, 2010). Slightly modified versions of this model have already been developed in other publications involving the same authors (Wikström, Williams, Karli, & Clune, 2013, p. 102; Williams and Wikström, 2011, p. 44). The 2013 version, for example, poses the environmental impact of a specific packaged food item (E) equals the sum of the environmental impact of purchased food (BF), packaging (P), and waste handling of packaging (WP) and food (WBL), i.e., .
Since waste is not our primary issue, and to avoid unnecessary complications, waste handling impacts will here be included in the packaging and product main variables. So,  standing for the packaging impact,  the product impact and  the product losses, we get . As in the original model (Wikström & Williams, 2010, p. 404), consumer-based product waste was kept as a specific variable because of its evitability, yet significance in so many food systems (Porpino, Parente, & Wansink, 2015, p. 619; Verghese, Lewis, Lockrey, & Williams, 2015, p. 603). Although significant in absolute terms, other kind of losses along the supply chain are not modeled as a specific variable, because they increase impacts equally from both the product and the packaging sides. Moreover, the goal of this study is not to test more effective packaging, but more efficient ones. Two additional important parameters are included in the model: , to characterize packaging efficiency gain and , additional sales. It is worth noting that additional sales imply additional production, consumption and waste. Although directly proportional, additional sales are distinguished from the environmental rebound effect itself, measured in terms of environmental impact changes in the system. This study main interest, however, lies not in this rebound effect, but in the system footprint variation between the incumbent solution and the most efficient packaging with additional sales.
As shown in the third column of the following table, the impact of packaging decreases from to  when migrating to a more efficient packaging, but the product impact remains the same, namely. Differently, and as shown in the last column, an increase in sale influences both the packaging and the product impacts by a factor.

Environmental
Impact
Incumbent
packaging
More efficient packaging
More efficient packaging, with additional sales
Packaging


Product



Product-packaging system
Table 1. The environmental impacts of a more efficient packaging and its rebound effect on the product-packaging system.
Source: Author, 2017.




5 SIMULATION AND RESULTS

The main objective is to compare the overall environmental impact of two systems, one based on a traditional relatively heavy packaging and the other on a new ultralight solution. The conclusions would be rather obvious if the second option did not cause an increase in sales (besides being usually less recycled, a situation considered in the LCA data, but that not directly discussed in this paper). Such a comparison requires a couple of quite complete life cycle data sets including not only the packaging itself, but also its product. Ideally, the only parameter should be additional sales. Unfortunately, such complete studies are still scarce. Until recently, environmental packaging assessments usually focused on comparing different packaging types or packaging waste treatments, typically leaving out almost any aspect related to the product. Studies “going beyond this narrow view on the packaging itself, like the consumption and production of packed goods, are often neglected” (Büsser & Jungbluth, 2009, p. 81).
Two case studies are sufficient to test the potential significance of a packaging rebound effect. The first one evaluates the energy footprint of a ketchup system. Since the original bottle-based study lacked comparative pouch data, two different source reductions were simulated. The second one assesses the carbon footprint of a tuna system. Since data are more recent and complete, the only tested parameter could have been increased sales, but the influence of product losses at a consumer level were also tested.


5.1 Ketchup system energy footprint 

This first set of simulations relies on data compiled by Williams and Wikström on the energy footprints of a ketchup product-packaging system (2011, p. 45). They original come from a life cycle assessment study that considered PP and EVOH ketchup blown bottles with PP caps and LDPE seals as primary packaging, as well as steel drums, stretch film and wooden pallets as tertiary packaging (Andersson, Ohlsson, & Olsson, 1998). Lacking similar footprint data for an alternative ultralight ketchup packaging, we capped packaging reduction simulations between two extremes (van Sluisveld & Worrell, 2013, p. 138): a 70% reduction for a simple but necessarily high-barrier sachet (scenarios pouch 2, 5 and 6) and a 30% reduction for a sophisticated spouted pouch (scenarios pouch 1, 3 and 4). Ketchup waste was set to 20%, as in the Williams and Wikström´s 2011 model, since studies indicated it is “a reasonable level of food losses in the consumer phase” (Williams & Wikström, 2011, p. 45). As far as sales increase, a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 30% were used, based on the minima and maxima generally found in rebound studies (Berkhout, Muskens & Velthuijsen, 2000, p 431; Gillingham, Kotchen, Rapson, & Wagner, 2013). The following table summarizes the resulting six scenarios.

Energy footprint
(MJ/kg)
Originalplastic bottle
Simulations
Pouch 1
Pouch 2
Pouch 3
Pouch 4
Pouch 5
Pouch 6
Ketchup waste
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Packaging reduction
0%
30%
70%
30%
30%
70%
70%
Sales increase
0%
0%
0%
5%
30%
5%
30%
Ketchup
11,0
11,0
11,0
11,6
14,3
11,6
14,3
Ketchup waste
2,2
2,2
2,2
2,3
2,9
2,3
2,9
Packaging
5,7
4,0
1,7
4,2
5,2
1,8
2,2
System
18,9
17,2
14,9
18,0
22,3
15,7
19,4
Table 2. Energy footprints of a ketchup system simulating two different packaging reduction (30 and 70%) and sales increase (5 and 30%).
Source: Author, 2017.

The new system energy footprint is obviously always higher than it would with no sales increase; but it actually exceeds the incumbent´s in both pouch scenarios with the 30% sales increase (4 and 6), thereby setting a Jevons paradox. A mere 11% sales increase would actually already be sufficient for that in the case of a 30% more efficient packaging (pouch 4 scenario). These results emphasize the relative importance of food versus packaging impacts. Williams and Wikström already concluded “it is probably just as important to find packaging systems with less environmental impact as it is to develop packaging that lead to lower losses of ketchup” (p. 46). This statement becomes all the more meaningful when considering a rebound effect.


5.2 Tuna system carbon footprint 

The second set of rebound effect simulations is based on a complete carbon footprint cradle-to-grave product-packaging system study comparing tuna packaged in a metal can, a retort pouch and a retort cup (Poovarodom, Ponnak, & Manatphrom, 2012). Since the can showed the highest footprint and the cup the lowest, the pouch option was not considered in this paper. It is worth noting that, although the packaging footprint is 68% lower with the cup than with the can, the tuna footprint is 25% higher due to a 60% lower batch capacity in the particular retort cup process that was assessed (p. 255).

Carbon footprint
(CO2e/kg)
Metal
can
Retort
pouch
Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Packaging reduction
0%
68%
68%
68%
Sales increase
0%
0%
5%
30%
Product
176,0
220,0
231,0
286,0
Product losses (5%)
8,8
11,0
11,6
14,3
Packaging
104,0
33,0
34,7
42,9
System
288,8
264,0
277,2
343,2
Table 3. Carbon footprints of a tuna product-packaging system with two different simulated sales increase (5 and 30%).
Source: Author, 2017.

As shown in the last column, even with a packaging carbon footprint almost 70% lower, a 30% increase in sales would increase the overall system carbon footprint by about 20% in the retort cup option. Actually, less than 10% increase in sales would already be sufficient to configure a Jevons paradox, a similar result to the 11% found in the previous ketchup simulation.
Poovarodom et al.´s system boundary did not include the consumption phase and no product loss were taken into account. Following a conservative approach, figures compiled in the table above considered a minimal 5% loss rate. Simulations performed at different rates naturally showed that the higher the loss rate, the higher the rebound effect. Figure 1 shows that increasing food waste from 5% to 20% brings the Jevons Paradox tipping point from a 10% down to a 6% sales increase. Note it also makes consumer-based tuna losses more impactful than the packaging. Although different packaging solutions can influence consumer behavior and indirectly provoke different waste rates, specific data are still rare (Wikström, Williams, Karli, & Clune, 2013). This particular case is not different: there is no evidence that the retort cup or the metal would cause higher food losses.


Fig. 1. Carbon footprints of a tuna retort cup system as a function of additional sales (from 0 to 30%) and at two different consumer waste levels (d = 5 and 20%).
Source: Author, 2017.



6 DISCUSSIONS


6.1 Rebound intensity


Empirical evidence in energy studies indicate a relatively small rebound effect, with estimates ranging from 0 to 30% depending on the object, but usually restricted to 15% (Berkhout, Muskens, & Velthuijsen, 2000, p. 431). “Studies and simulations indicate that behavioral responses shave 5-30% off intended energy savings, reaching no more than 60% when combined with macroeconomic effects” (Gillingham, Kotchen, Rapson, & Wagner, 2013, p. 476). These figures might constitute interesting references, but packaging is a different subject.
First, packaging generally only represents a fraction of the total product price. Thus, even with packaging weight reductions reaching 70% or more, relative cost reductions of the packaged product will likely remain small. Moreover, packaging cost and weight are not directly proportional. For example, flexible packaging are generally more expensive than other solutions per weight unit, because of their higher technical complexity. Furthermore, industry costs and consumer prices are not directly proportional either. In business situations that results in cost savings through eco-efficiency, only part of the savings cascade down to consumers (Pelton, Li, Smith, & Lyon, 2016, p. 5911). In any packaging reduction project, it is fair to expect that the converting industry, the product manufacturer and the retailer will adjust prices to guarantee their share, leaving out only a residual fraction to consumers. On the other hand, this might lead to a similar outcome, incentivizing not a consumer-driven, but a supply-driven increase in more eco-efficient packaging. In general, although each case will bring different results, consumer price reductions are generally much smaller than packaging reductions.
Sales increase, however, are not only nor directly induced by price reductions. Consumers might just migrate to cheaper options, without necessarily consuming more, or vice versa. Increased consumption depends on the price elasticity of demand, “a dimensionless construct referring to the percentage change in purchased quantity or demand with a 1% change in price”, which main influencing factors are “availability of substitutes, household income, consumer preferences, expected duration of price change, and the product’s share of a household’s income” (Andreyeva, Long, & Brownell, 2010, p. 217). For example, compiling studies on prices of 16 food categories in the USA between 1938 and 2007, Andreyeva et al. reported elasticities ranging from 0,27 for eggs to 0,81 for eating out (Andreyeva, Long, & Brownell, 2010, p. 219). The rebound effect caused by a more efficient food packaging, thus, is likely to be greater for elastic products such as soft drinks (0,79) or juices (0,76) than 'inelastic' ones such as eggs or sugar (0,34). It is worth noting beef (0,76), for it not only displays a high elasticity, but also bear the environmental characteristics of the highly impactful animal products mentioned above. However, even for low-elasticity products, savings on a particular product might end up being spent on a different one, i.e., used as additional expandable income (Burns, Cook, & Mavoa, 2013) that can indirectly lead to an increase in packaging. In 1980, Khazzom already applied a similar reasoning to the energy efficiency of household appliances: “an improvement in the efficiency of one appliance influences not only the demand for own end-use, but also the demand for other end-uses. This follows from the fact that end-uses compete for the same overall budget” (Khazzom 1980 apud Alcott, 2005, p. 14).
One must also consider that “economic shocks […] can lead to changes in purchasing behavior that are not necessarily predicted by elasticity estimates […] under normal market conditions” (Andreyeva, Long, & Brownell, 2010, p. 221). In the stable market economy of a developed country such as the USA, the rebound effect of energy efficiency tends to be small because consumption patterns already largely meet population needs (Greening, Greene, & Difiglio, 2000, p. 399). The same logic probably applies to packaging efficiency. In times of crisis, economic or political instability, or in an emerging country such as Brazil, the context can be conducive to an increase in the consumption of more efficient, less expensive products and packaging.
Finally, a price discount is not the only reason that explain the increase in sales of packaged product. “Whenever technology becomes more efficient, this improvement is usually accompanied by an increase in its use in order to improve the quality of life and make it more comfortable” (Abukhader, 2008, p. 802). Packaging aesthetics, convenience and ease of use are important aspects to consider. As shown in the kids drink juice pouch example, they might go hand in hand with flexible packaging efficiency.
Although the relationship is complex, dependent on a vast array of different factors, drastic packaging source reduction most certainly increases consumption, possibly amounting to Jevons paradoxes under certain specific conditions. As such, and although “the inclusion of the rebound effect into LCA-based studies is still one of the most relevant unresolved issues in the field” (Vivanco & van der Voet, 2014, p. 1933), this effect should not be neglected in environmental packaging assessments involving drastic source reductions, and especially with highly valuable products or unstable economies. Such a conclusion might lead some to think higher packaging eco-efficiencies are not to be pursued. Such expected reasoning, in turn, demands some examination.


6.2 Rebound vs eco-efficiency 

Recognition of the Jevons paradox are frequently accompanied by strong political, economic or philosophical criticism. York, for example, wrote that “the search for increased profits inherent in capitalist modes of production lead producers both trying to reduce costs […] and increase revenues”, i.e., that “the association between efficiency and total consumption is primarily due to […] profit seeking behavior by capitalists” (York, 2006, p. 143). Under Alcott´s words (2005, p.9), "twentieth-century economic growth theory sees technological change as the main cause of increased production and consumption”, whereas Amado & Sauer argue that the Jevons effect might be used as a “laboratory test to compare the ability of neoclassical and ecological economic paradigms to describe the social appropriation of nature” (Amado & Sauer, 2012, p. 2).
Such generic criticism towards technological efficiency must first be nuanced within a packaging-specific context. Under a broader sustainability perspective, even packaging efficiency gains overset by larger rebounds effects are not necessarily negative. Cheaper packaging means greater access to products, i.e., important socio-economic benefits to more people, be it through better nutrition or better hygiene. Following the dynamic relationships of social impacts (UNEP/SETAC, 2009, p. 43), such socioeconomic gains can then positively affect other dimensions like education or quality of life. More affordable packaging can also make products less susceptible to inflation in case of crisis or even help avoid shortages, a benefit that has already been evidenced, incidentally, for example, with oil (Hirsch, Bezdek, & Wendling, 2006, p. 4).
More broadly, adopting the view that eco-efficiency gains are useless because they worsen the overall environmental balance is dangerous. Such an idea might not only justify conformism and inaction, but also serve as a disguised argument to defend conservative interests. Following this argument, a group of renowned scientists wrote in Nature that the rebound effect has become a damaging distraction to the improvement of the energy sector (Gillingham, Kotchen, Rapson, & Wagner, 2013, p. 475). They argue that many practical issues such as lack of investment or delays in the dissemination of technological innovations already sufficiently hinder the implementation of energy efficiency measures, not needing additional theoretical discussions to limit its advances. The same could be argued about packaging efficiency. Some actions could be taken, however, to try to mitigate the impacts of possible rebound effects.


6.3 Offsetting rebounds 

Compensation mechanisms that would offset rebound effects have already been proposed. Most of them, if not all, imply government interventions. They are rarely implemented into public policies, though, even within the multibillion-dollar energy sector or global warming mitigation strategies (Freire-González & Puig-Ventosa, 2015, p. 69). Their establishment within the packaging sector is thus very unlikely.
A classic option would consist in creating additional fees to counteract price discounts related to higher efficiency. Back in 1997, Wackernagel and Rees answered their own question: “Can we afford cost-saving energy efficiency? The answer is 'yes' only if efficiency gains are taxed away or otherwise removed from further economic circulation (p. 20)”. Notwithstanding good intentions, the practical challenges to implement such regulations in a fair and consistent manner have already been highlighted (Freire-González & Puig-Ventosa, 2015, p. 76). In order to ensure its environmental benefits, a complex additional tax system on more efficient packaging may be conceived. The impracticality of such a measure, though, would quickly become apparent. For example, in countries with waste or landfill reduction targets, this tax would create paradoxical situations, somehow promoting source reduction and taxing lighter packaging at the same time. Plus, beyond the practical difficulties of establishing a proper taxation, lies a more complex reality yet: "even taxes on fuel or CO2 will be compensated by efficiency increases, and moreover they face the problem that tax revenue also gets spent on material and energy” (Alcott, 2005, p. 19). The same could be said on the ubiquitous packaging.
Another option to make up for the rebound effect would be policies governing resource usage and waste generation. Methods involving rationing or quotas prevail. However, besides being certainly as complex as corrective taxation schemes, politicians will most likely avoid such measures. Alcott concluded his article writing that, “politically unfashionable though they may be – Jevons himself denied that the consumption of coal can be kept down in our free system of industry –, ecological economics should once again take resource rationing seriously (2005, p 20). Wackernagel and Rees concluded in a similar fashion. "This is our present dilemma: while politically acceptable policies [...] would be ecologically ineffective, environmentally significant policy would be politically impossible (if not heretical)" (1997, p 22). If such measures were to be taken with fast-moving consumer goods, they would first address the products, not their packaging.




7 CONCLUSIONS

Grounded on its occurrence in other fields, the possibility of an environmental rebound effect with drastic packaging source reduction was first illustrated and discussed. A simple mathematical model allowed the construction of several scenarios based on two previous life cycle studies dataset. As it applies to both the packaging and its products, moderate environmental rebound effects are probably common, especially under conditions conducive to high rebound intensities. Some extreme cases could even ignite Jevons paradoxes. As such, this effect should at least be considered in environmental packaging studies assessing situations prone to the phenomenon. It should not, however, invalidate packaging eco-efficiency efforts, even if policies trying to offset such indirect effects would most likely be unpractical.
At the same time it stands as a warning about the possible drawback of increased packaging efficiency, this rebound effect appears as one more argument to the importance of its main function, i.e., product protection. In this regard, the packaging effectiveness towards its product deserves as much or even more environmental attention as its efficiency as an industrial object (Sustainable Packaging Coalition, 2011).
The main limitations of this study lie in in a well-known recurring problem, the difficulty of directly measuring the rebound effect. One remaining academic challenge is thus to determine the extent and the conditions under which this particular phenomenon can occur. Specific detailed case studies are probably the only way out. The central issue is environmental, but the underlying mechanisms are mostly social and economic. It is a 'socio-ecological paradox' (York, 2006, p. 143). A multidisciplinary approach would therefore be essential.


Written by Teddy Lalande - April, 2017.



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